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What if~Mao Tse Tung never conquered China?
The People's Republic of China is one of the more prominent and more powerful nations in East Asia today. Having a love-hate relationship with both it's East Asian neighbors such as Japan and the Koreas as well as Europe and the USA. For the latter part of the 19th century and going into the 20th century, China has gone through a series of power struggles as a modern government was struggling to hold onto power after the fall of the Qing Dynasty, from zealous dictators wanting to restore imperial rule to the military aggression of Japan and the eventual rise of the Chinese Communist party run by the man of this page: Mao Tse Tung ''(or the Anglo-American spelling of ''Mao Zedong). But what if Mao Tse Tung never came to power? What would become of China and the rest of the world if he didn't take over China? This is what this page to cover, but first some real history. Just scroll down to the "What if?" category of this page if you just want to read about the alternate scenario. Real History For the half-century and after the overthrow of the Qing Dynasty, China went through a series of regime changes. But by 1927 the contest to see who gets to control China's destiny was pretty much down to 2. The Communists (led by Mao Tse Tung) and the Nationalists (led by Chiang Kai Shek). The Chinese Civil War went on for around 9 years. That is until the Japanese invaded the rest of China by 1936 as they kidnapped Chiang Kai Shek and forcing the 2 rival parties to put differences aside and fight against the Japanese. But by 1946 (after World War 2 and the Japanese surrendered) the second phase of the Chinese Civil War began, and Mao and his communists were given a base by the Soviets who invaded Japanese occupied Manchuria right at the end of World War 2. During this time, Chiang wanted to take the opportunity to destroy the communists once and for all as they were aiming for the city of Harbin (which was the biggest city of Manchuria and the De Jeur Captial of the province when it was under Japanese control. However, Chiang was also given some advice by the Americans (who were advising the Nationalist cause during the war), however, the American strategists wanted to renegotiate with the Chinese government and form some kind of coalition with the Nationalists which forced Chiang to call off his attack on Harbin in the summer of 1947. This gave time for Mao and his commies breathing room and recovery time, and for the next 2 and ½ years, the Communists would beat the Nationalists back and allowed Mao to take power in October of 1949, forcing Chiang and the Nationalists to flee to Taiwan (where they would set up their Government). With this, Mao Tse Tung and the Communist Party would take complete control of China. Of course, as we all know that Mao's terrible policies to have China rapidly industrialize and keep up with not just it's Asian neighbors but also the west (policies such as "The Great Leap Forward" and the "Cultural Revolution") lead to millions of deaths of China's people. It wouldn't be until Mao's death in 1976 where China would begin to shake off his shadow and become a competitor in the Global Market. What if? Now for that popular question. What if Mao Tse Tung and his Communists, never came to power? What would China be like under a Nationalist Government? This is what this page will try to cover. Let's say Chiang doesn't comply with the suggestion of his American advisors and decides to go onward with his offensive, giving the Communists no time to the group and go on the offensive. By Autumn of 1947, the Nationalists have won the Chinese Civil War. Of course, you may be thinking now that the Nationalists won the Chinese Civil War in this alternate reality that with the Communists defeated, China is now this "Perfect Land of Sunshine and Rainbows." Step back and take in the bigger picture in this situation. Now, as for us Democracy lovers here in the good ol' US of A. They believe that *anything* not run by Communism is good. Well, it is true that Mao was indeed bad for China. But the truth of the matter is that Chiang Kai Shek and his Nationalists weren't entirely innocent themselves. During the 2 phases of the Chinese Civil War, the Sino-Japanese War and even World War 2, the Nationalists would use very brutal (sometimes outright violent) means to recruit people into the Nationalist military, they used Press Gangs and even resorted to kidnapping. The Nationalists were also very brutal in dealing with medial critics and even political opposition, as they would kill those who speak out against the Nationalist Party. Add up the "Big Mess" the Japanese left, as in huge national debt and even food shortages which led the Nationalists to fall out of favor of the Chinese Public and even lean towards the Communist cause. Plus the fact is that the Chinese farmers wanted their land back from the Warlords who were loyal to the Nationalists and feared that their lands would be given back to the loyalist Warlords if the Nationalist Party won the war. In this alternate reality, the Nationalist Government would more than likely turn China into a police state, they would also have a hard time getting China back on its feet in the immediate years following World war 2. They would also give farmlands back to the loyalist warlords, which could make food shortages in China much worse and more difficult to fully recover. Plus, Democracy and Human Rights also wouldn't exist in a Nationalist China either, so ethnic groups in China could be targeted by Nationalists especially those that the Nationalists either believe or know that helped the Communists. However, it isn't all doom and gloom in this Alternate China. For one thing (or 2 rather) The Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution never happen, and thus millions of Chinese People never die. A Nationalist China could also make a few pacts with the Communists either they are Chinese or otherwise. The nationalists would probably allow the remaining Communists in Manchuria break off and form their region, but more or less make it a buffer zone between China and the USSR. The Xinjiang Province would also try to break away from this Nationalist China as well and even try to make a pact with the Soviets. In reality, at the start of the Chinese Civil War, the Soviets aided the people in this province against the Nationalists and form the "East Turkestan Republic". But this was stamped out as the Communists won the Chinese Civil War and re-integrated back into China. The leaders even wanted to venture to Moscow to strike a deal with the Soviets to make East Turkestan independent from China, though this never got off the ground as their plane crashed before it reached its destination (though not much evidence exists that there ever was a plane crash). It remains uncertain about what would happen to Tibet. But, the Nationalists could keep it independent since it's such a remote area. The Nationalists winning the Chinese Civil War also has ramifications that affect even other parts of the world. Though the Korean War would probably still happen, without a strong Communist military coming from China, it is in all likely hood that the South (along with US aid) would win the Korean War. Now, I'm going to gloss over on the outcome of this Alternate Korean War victory. Just click here to find out what happens when South Korea wins the war. The Vietnam War on the other hand probably wouldn't happen as, without the communists in China, the French would have a better time dealing with Ho Chi Minh and his Rebels, and Vietnam (along with present-day Laos and Cambodia) would still be a French colony for at least a few more decades. This would also affect the American Hippie Counter Culture movement, it would either not exist or less prominent. This would also have an effect on the Cold War, that is not to say that the USA and the USSR would be "best of friends" they would still be rivals, but it would be less tense (at least in America) as Joe McCarthy's "Red Scare" would be less prominent or non-existent and this would allow both nations to be a lot more complacent to end the arms race and improve relations with China never becoming Communist. Though, the Nationalists could also play a role in the Cold War as they would try to invade Mongolia as the Nationalists always recognize it as a part of China. This could raise tensions in the Cold War as the Nationalists would take military action against the Mongolians. The Economy of a Nationalist China would depend solely on the decisions the Nationalist government makes, they can either open China to the Global Market, or they can isolate themselves and not have any trade partners. I can see 2 scenarios with this. Scenario 1~China Opens to the Global Market In this Scenario, Chiang Kai Shek decides to open China to the Global Market as he agrees to pay lip-service to the Democratic West and trade goods and other things with other nations. If this scenario happens, then there can be a lot of ramifications, which is good for China but not so good for some other nations. Now, It'll take decades for China's economy to stabilize in the immediate years following World War 2 and the Chinese Civil War. However, by the 1960s is when China's economy will stabilize enough to try to compete with the west. In fact, by the 1970's or 80's in this alternate reality China could have not just an economy but a GNP (Gross National Product) and a GDP (Gross Domestic Product) which can rival that of the USA, so it's not just a question of "How can China keep up with the USA?" but "How can the USA can stay ahead of China?" It's also possible that by the 21st century, China could have both a GNP and a GDP that surpasses the USA. This can also harm the economies of Korea and Japan too. Though the 2 nations may not have to worry about it right away, by the same time (the 1970s and '80s) is where both Korea and japan would find themselves playing "catch-up" with China, which can result in inflation in both nations. Scenario 2~China remains Isolated Now, I was going to tell you about another scenario where the Nationalists decide to remain isolated and not trade with any nations. Well, if that happens than China's problems would not just persist well into the latter half of the 20th century, but also would worsen especially unemployment and food shortages. Of course, this would risk the nation finding itself in another Civil War. Though, there is evidence that the first scenario would more than likely happen. One of these pieces of evidence is that (more than likely) the Colonial Cities of Hong Kong and Macau would be re-integrated back into China decades earlier than they did in our reality. Now, it seems unlikely this would happen in this alternate reality, but if the USSR still collapses, the Cold War would change, yes not end but change, and it would be between the USA and a Nationalist China. Remember, the Nationalists are *NOT* for Democracy nor are they for Human Rights, so it makes sense for the USA to not be best buds with a Nationalist China, so its rivalry would still be over different political ideology, but instead of an arms race, it'll be Economical Competition, who can sell it better, faster, bigger, and who can sway other nations better. There's also the question of East Turkestan and Manchuria. Would they re-integrate back into China (like Germany did in our reality) or be isolated from the rest of the world (like North Korea in our reality)? Well, that's a scenario that is impossible to predict. In short, Chiang Kai Shek and his Nationalists weren't "Goodie Two-Shoes", they were like Mao and his Communists in a lot of ways. Chinese People would still die, but just not on the scale of what we have seen in the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. So, *IF* China was run by Nationalists, they wouldn't be so great as they would be brutal in handling Political Opposition and even other forms of dissidence, and maybe also in foreign affairs too. What do you think would happen if Mao never took power in China? Don't forget to check out my Games and Movies wikis too. Until next time, this is JohnnyOTGS signing out.